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An asteroid that once posed a threat to Earth is now being closely observed for the possibility of a collision with the Moon. This celestial object, designated 2024 YR4, attracted significant attention when it was initially identified as a potential Earth impactor. However, subsequent assessments by NASA have shown that the likelihood of it colliding with our planet has been drastically reduced to virtually zero. Recent predictions indicate there remains a minimal 3.8% chance of a collision with Earth on December 22, 2032.
The asteroid 2024 YR4 was first spotted in December 2024. At that time, it held the record for the highest probability of Earth impact ever identified for an asteroid of its size, with a probability of 1 in 32 (3.1%). However, extensive tracking and analysis of its orbital characteristics by NASA have revised the impact probability down to a mere 0.00078%, effectively alleviating concerns regarding a potential collision with Earth. As a result, the focus of research has shifted to the asteroid’s possible interaction with the Moon.
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Recent studies utilizing the Gemini South Telescope in Chile have shed light on the asteroid’s unconventional shape, likening it to a hockey puck due to its notably flat, disc-like profile. According to Bryce Bolin, the lead author of the study and an astrophysicist at Eureka Scientific, “Most asteroids don’t look like this.” This unique morphology sets it apart from more common potato-shaped asteroids, making it a significant object of interest for researchers.
Estimates suggest that 2024 YR4 has a diameter ranging from 130 to 300 feet (approximately 40 to 90 meters) and completes a full rotation every 20 minutes. Classified as an S-type asteroid, it is rich in silicate minerals such as quartz, presenting a rare opportunity for scientists to explore its unique shape and relatively rapid rotation.
Experts indicate that there is no risk to Earth or any disruption to the Moon’s orbit should the asteroid impact the lunar surface. Instead, such an event could provide scientists with a unique opportunity to study the physics of impacts and the processes involved in crater formation live, which can significantly enhance our understanding of planetary science.
For the time being, astronomers will closely monitor the trajectory of 2024 YR4. Although the probability of a crash with the Moon is low, the potential research benefits from such an impact are substantial.
